June 18th, 2002


What? You're being reasonable about that?

So I started reading Hubbert's Peak by K.S. Deffeyes. In the first couple of chapters he states that his analysis has the planetary peak oil production happening around 2004. The reason this is important since our demand continues to climb we will start having a shortfall between supply and demand--the capitalists dream.

Apparently natural gas production has peaked (or is peaking) in texas, and perhaps most of North America. (Based off this paper.)

So although I can get lost in unnecessary moralizing about the ethics of participating in large scale pollution there's another practial concern.

Since we're probably nearing a period of perpetual shortages of fossil fuel's (except for coal (mmmm... lung cancer)). I think it would show some amazing foresight if we started building up infrastructure that doesn't require massive fossil fuel inputs to function. It is far easier for us to be building that new infrastructure now while energy is still reasonably cheap.

The pragmatic reason for me pushing bicycling, supporting mass transit, trying to design cities that doesn't require driving every where, trying to bring food production more local, requiring fewer environmental controls to be comfortable is I expect in the near future energy to become more expensive. We need experience with alternatives so we can know what to start investing in.